Predictability, uncertainty, and hyperbolicity in the ocean

Lagrangian predictability of an ocean flow is studied using ideas from dynamical systems theory. Finite-time analogues of invariant manifolds and attractors are utilized to parse the flow field into regions with distinct advective fates or destinations. These analogues take the form of inflowing and outflowing material curves emanating from hyperbolic trajectories. Applications are made to the Gulf of Mexico using a high resolution, data assimilating, primitive equation hydrodynamic model.