Physical model for the prediction of pavement polishing

Works are presented on the development of a model predicting road skid-resistance variations. Influential phenomena are incorporated (aggregate polishing, binder removal and binder ageing due to climate) and represented by simple mathematical functions. Model parameters are obtained by fitting to data provided by laboratory tests. Experimental roads have been tracked for 4 years and data regularly collected from extracted cores are used to validate the model. Predictions are satisfactory and help to better understand the mutual influence of involved mechanisms.