Expected shortage based pre-release strategy for reservoir flood control

In Taiwan, an increase in the frequency of severe flooding over the past decade has prompted demand for improved reservoir operation to control flood-related damage. Flood protection of reservoir can be enhanced by pre-releasing its storage to more adequately accommodate an impending flood. A procedure is proposed in this paper to evaluate the impact of pre-releases of flood control operation on water supply. A basic criterion used is that the pre-release of reservoir storage should not cause intolerable increment of water shortage risk. The shortage risks for different pre-release scenarios are simulated according to the uncertainties of storm rainfall and post-flood ordinary inflow till the end of next dry season. Two operational objectives are provided to help determining the target pre-released level. One of which identifies the minimum allowable pre-released threshold. The other seeks the pre-released level which maximizes the probability that the reservoir release during flood is below the non-damaging discharge and the end-of-operation storage target can still be achieved. This paper evaluated the operations of Tsengwen Reservoir of southern Taiwan during four typhoons from 2007 to 2012 to illustrate the significant contribution of pre-releases in reducing downstream flood potential.