An assessment of the NASA explosion fragmentation model to 1 mm characteristic sizes Original Research Article

The current NASA explosion model, as utilized by EVOLVE and LEGEND, is predicated upon observations of on-orbit fragmentation debris arising from the explosion of rocket bodies and payloads, and ground-based laboratory tests. This model results in a good comparison with the environment observed and cataloged by the US Space Commandʹs Space Surveillance Network (SSN), assumed to be complete to a limiting size on the order of 10 cm. However, the hazard posed by debris in the size range from 1 mm to 10 cm is paramount in terms of personnel and spacecraft protection; thus, there is a need for a fragmentation model validated down to characteristic sizes of 1 mm. This paper summarizes current NASA efforts to validate the explosion model in this size range by utilizing both on-orbit data (collected by the SSN, Haystack, and Haystack Auxiliary (HAX) radars) and ground-test data, and presents the mathematical formalisms describing the model as a function of mass and size. A comparison of the explosion model to individual explosive fragmentations occurring in the 1990s and observed by the Haystack and HAX radars was made. The consequences for the future debris environment are discussed.