Long-term hurricane risk assessment and expected damage to residential structures

This paper presents results from a study to evaluate long-term hurricane risks in the Southeastern United States using event-based simulation procedures. These risks are defined by (1) the statistical extreme wind climate, and (2) the expected insured losses from damage to residential structures. A probabilistic hurricane event model developed by the authors is used to evaluate long-term risks. The event model parameters were derived from a statistical analysis of storms affecting the Southeastern United States and include radius of maximum winds, central pressure difference, landfall location, storm track, and decay rate. The 50-year mean recurrence interval (MRI) gradient-level and surface gust wind speeds are evaluated for the region investigated using results from the simulation analysis. When coupled with a damage model, also developed by the authors, the results from the event-based simulation analysis are used to provide estimates of the expected losses. The states of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida are used to demonstrate the applicability of this procedure for evaluating expected losses. Implications for setting design wind speeds as well as risk-consistent insurance rates are discussed.