A method for predicting errors when interacting with finite state systems. How implicit learning shapes the userʹs knowledge of a system

This paper describes a method for predicting the errors that may appear when human operators or users interact with systems behaving as finite state systems. The method is a generalization of a method used for predicting errors when interacting with autopilot modes on modern, highly computerized airliners [Proc 17th Digital Avionics Sys Conf (DASC) (1998); Proc 10th Int Symp Aviat Psychol (1999)]. A cognitive model based on spreading activation networks is used for predicting the userʹs model of the system and its impact on the production of errors. The model strongly posits the importance of implicit learning in user–system interaction and its possible detrimental influence on usersʹ knowledge of the system. An experiment conducted with Airbus Industrie and a major European airline on pilotsʹ knowledge of autopilot behavior on the A340-200/300 confirms the model predictions, and in particular the impact of the frequencies with which specific state transitions and contexts are experienced.