The application of lightning forecasting based on surface electrostatic field observations and radar data

This paper presents an analysis of lightning forecasting based on atmospheric electrostatic field (EF), radar and lightning location data in Nanjing of China. The warning behavior with EF data in summer of 2009 was analyzed and the suitable EF warning indexes were determined. To improve EF warnings effect, a method of cloud-ground (CG) lightning nowcasting based on EF observations, radar data, etc. was proposed and the best radar forecasting index was selected in the paper. The experimental (2009) and independent test (2010) results show that POD is 82.7%, FAR is 14.6%, CSI is 72.4% and average lead time is 20.8 min.