Taiwanʹs GHG mitigation potentials and costs: An evaluation with the MARKAL model

The post-Kyoto negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have produced significant results such as the Bali Roadmap, Copenhagen Accord and Cancun Agreement, and clarified partiesʹ plans for long-term emissions mitigation. This paper presents the results on the simulations of different technology development scenarios under the same emission reduction goal, utilizing the MARKAL model to evaluate emissions reduction on Taiwanʹs electricity, industry, buildings, and transportation sectors. The empirical results show that Taiwan can potentially reduce 56%–60% of greenhouse gas emissions relative to the BAU scenario in 2025, and 15% relative to the 2005 levels. These projected results are higher than the Kyoto targets of Annex I countries and also higher than those projected in the (IEA, 2011 [17]) and (EIA, 2011 [5]) scenarios. The accumulated incremental cost will be an increase by 1.2%–1.96% of Taiwanʹs GDP. wan heavily relies on imported energy from foreign sources and has very limited natural endowments of renewable energy, it is very difficult for Taiwan to reach this reduction goal alone through adopting emission reduction technology, or applying economic incentive mechanism. Allowing Taiwan to participate in the international flexible mechanisms will be a necessary measure for Taiwan to achieve its emission reduction goal; in addition, such participation will also benefit the international communityʹs GHG reduction efforts tremendously.