• Title of article

    Neglecting parameter changes in GARCH models

  • Author/Authors

    Hillebrand، نويسنده , , Eric، نويسنده ,

  • Issue Information
    دوفصلنامه با شماره پیاپی سال 2005
  • Pages
    18
  • From page
    121
  • To page
    138
  • Abstract
    If a GARCH model is estimated on a time series that contains parameter changes in the conditional volatility process and these parameter changes are not accounted for, a distinct error in the estimation occurs: The sum of the estimated autoregressive parameters of the conditional variance converges to one. In finite samples, the sum of the estimated autoregressive parameters is heavily biased towards one. This paper shows that this convergence holds for all common estimators of GARCH. Simulations of the GARCH model show that the effect occurs for realistic parameter changes and sample sizes for financial volatility data.
  • Keywords
    Volatility persistence , Spurious estimation , Spurious unit root , Spurious long memory , GARCH
  • Journal title
    Journal of Econometrics
  • Serial Year
    2005
  • Journal title
    Journal of Econometrics
  • Record number

    1558806