Title of article
Neglecting parameter changes in GARCH models
Author/Authors
Hillebrand، نويسنده , , Eric، نويسنده ,
Issue Information
دوفصلنامه با شماره پیاپی سال 2005
Pages
18
From page
121
To page
138
Abstract
If a GARCH model is estimated on a time series that contains parameter changes in the conditional volatility process and these parameter changes are not accounted for, a distinct error in the estimation occurs: The sum of the estimated autoregressive parameters of the conditional variance converges to one. In finite samples, the sum of the estimated autoregressive parameters is heavily biased towards one. This paper shows that this convergence holds for all common estimators of GARCH. Simulations of the GARCH model show that the effect occurs for realistic parameter changes and sample sizes for financial volatility data.
Keywords
Volatility persistence , Spurious estimation , Spurious unit root , Spurious long memory , GARCH
Journal title
Journal of Econometrics
Serial Year
2005
Journal title
Journal of Econometrics
Record number
1558806
Link To Document