Updating real-time reliability of instrumented systems with stochastic simulation

In this research, a new method is proposed to update real-time reliability based on data recorded by instruments and sensors installed on a system. The method is founded on Bayesian analysis and subset simulation and is capable of estimating the functional relationship between the real-time failure probability and the monitoring value. It is shown that as long as the monitoring data can be reasonably deduced into a single index, this relationship can be obtained; moreover, it can be obtained prior to the monitoring process. Three examples of civil engineering systems are used to demonstrate the new method. This new method may be applied to safety monitoring of in-construction civil systems and monitoring of existing civil systems.