A comprehensive Bayesian approach for model updating and quantification of modeling errors

This paper presents a comprehensive Bayesian approach for structural model updating which accounts for errors of different kinds, including measurement noise, nonlinear distortions stemming from the linearization of the model, and modeling errors due to the limited predictability of the latter. In particular, this allows the computation of any type of statistics on the updated parameters, such as joint or marginal probability density functions, or confidence intervals. The present work includes four main contributions that make the Bayesian updating approach feasible with general numerical models: (1) the proposal of a specific experimental protocol based on multisine excitations to accurately assess measurement errors in the frequency domain; (2) two possible strategies to represent the modeling error as additional random variables to be inferred jointly with the model parameters; (3) the introduction of a polynomial chaos expansion that provides a surrogate mapping between the probability spaces of the prior random variables and the model modal parameters; (4) the use of an evolutionary Monte Carlo Markov Chain which, in conjunction with the polynomial chaos expansion, can sample the posterior probability density function of the updated parameters at a very reasonable cost. The proposed approach is validated by numerical and experimental examples.