Evaluation of methodology for QRA in offshore operations

A brief summary is presented of the development of Quantified Risk Analysis in the offshore oil and gas industry for nearly 20 years. From a modest start in Norway as a research activity, QRA has today become one of the focal points of oil and gas management in all countries around the North Sea, and also in other areas. This was mainly initiated by authority regulations and requirements, but has now for some time been driven by the industry itself, as it sees the QRA as a vehicle to gain extended flexibility with respect to optimization of offshore safety standards. This article discusses how QRAs are used, and examines in this light how methodology developments that are and should be carried out by R&D institutions and the industry. Recommendations with respect to how and where knowledge should be developed are expressed and discussed. Lastly visions for future use and developments within the QRA technology are outlined.