Stochastic modelling for the analysis of blowout risk in exploration drilling

This article discusses the theoretical basis and the general framework related to stochastic blowout modelling in an offshore risk management context. The general scope is put forward by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) and the operating companiesʹ need for an adequate decision making tool that permits studies of the effects of implemented risk reducing measures based on local conditions. Previous work and todayʹs practices regarding stochastic modelling for the analysis of blowout risk are reviewed and discussed. Moreover, a different and perhaps more thorough approach to blowout risk modelling in exploration drilling is suggested that is based upon physical causal mechanisms and expert judgements combined with hard data rather than world wide blowout statistics.