Current status of methodologies for seismic probabilistic safety analysis

This report is a review of the methodology for conducting a seismic-probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) at a nuclear power station. The objective of this review is to provide an up-to-date review of the state-of-the-art of the various sub-methodologies that comprise the overall seismic-PSA methodology for addressing the safety of nuclear power stations, plus an overview of the whole methodological picture. In preparing this review, the author has had in mind several categories of readers and users: policy-level decision-makers (such as managers of nuclear power stations and regulators of nuclear safety), seismic-PSA practitioners, and PSA practitioners more broadly. The review concentrates on evaluating the extent to which todayʹs seismic-PSA methodology produces reliable and useful results and insights, at its current state-of-the-art level, for assessing nuclear-power-station safety. Also, this review paper deals exclusively with seismic-PSA for addressing nuclear-power-station safety. Because the author is based in the U.S., it is natural that this review will contain more emphasis on U.S. experience than on experience in other countries. However, significant experience elsewhere is a major part of the basis for this evaluation.