On using residual risk to assess the cost effectiveness and health protectiveness of remedy selection at superfund sites

This article examines the importance of determining residual risk and its impact on remedy selection at Superfund Sites. Within this examination, risks are assessed using probabilistic models that incorporate the uncertainty and variability of the input parameters, and utilize parameter distributions based on current and applicable site-specific data. Monte Carlo methods are used to propagate these uncertainties and variabilities through the risk calculations resulting in a distribution for the estimate of both risk and residual risk. Such an approach permits an informed decision based on a broad information base which involves considering the entire uncertainty distribution of risk rather than a point estimate for each exposure scenario. Using the probabilistic risk estimates, with current and applicable site-specific data, alternative decisions regarding cleanup are obtained for two Superfund Sites.