Shelf-life estimation of gun propellant stockpile

Gun propellant stability is an important consideration when assessing the safety of gun ammunition. In order to predict deteriorating stability of propellant stockpiles over lifetime, the master sample surveillance program has long been used by U.S. military laboratories. In this paper, we utilize the information obtained from the Navyʹs master sample surveillance program and employ a random effects linear model to estimate the safe shelf-life of gun propellant stockpiles. Estimation methods are discussed and applied to 5-inch 54-caliber Navy Cool (NACO) propellants. Several recommendations are made to improve the current practice of the surveillance program and subsequent data analyses.