A DES approach for the contextual load modelling of supply chain system for instability analysis

In this paper, a modelling and simulation approach for the analysis of a supply chain system taking into account the relations of the system to its contextual components is presented. The purpose is to address several issues particularly on whether decision policies would provide stability in the presence of disturbances, as well as evaluating the effect of disturbances on the system. The task of developing a contextual load model requires the identification of the possible sources of disturbances that exist in the system, the modelling of these disturbances and the particular parameters in the model that are to be changed to simulate such disturbances. Results revealed the effectiveness of the various decision policies to provide stability under the different types of disturbances. The findings demonstrate the ability of the approach to provide a wealth of potential solutions, and confirm the qualitative behaviour of a supply chain in response to the different policies.