Incorporating observability thresholds of tumors into the two-stage carcinogenesis model

This paper discusses a general way of incorporating the growth kinetics of malignant tumors with the two-stage carcinogenesis model. The model is presented using time-homogeneous rate parameters. In that case, the differential equations comprising the model are straightforward to solve using standard numerical techniques and software. An extension of the method to time-dependent rate parameters is included in Appendix A. Allowing the rate parameters to be time-dependent does incur computational cost. An expression is given for the expected time without visible tumor, a generalization of the expected time to an observable tumor that includes the possibility of tumor regression. The model is illustrated using incidental liver tumor data in control rats from NTP rodent carcinogenicity studies, using linear birth–death kinetics of tumors combined with a non-absorbing detection limit. The approach is also shown to be potentially useful with tumor observability thresholds having more complicated features.