Finite element analysis with uncertain probabilities

This paper presents a general method for the finite element analysis of linear mechanical systems by taking into account probability density functions whose parameters are affected by fuzziness. Within this framework, the standard perturbation-based stochastic finite element method is relaxed in order to incorporate uncertain probabilities in static, dynamic and modal analyses. General formulae are provided for assessing the (fuzzy) structural reliability and several typologies of optimization problems (reliability-based design, robust design, robust/reliability-based design) are formalized. In doing this the credibility theory is extensively used to extract qualified crisp data from the available set of fuzzy results, so that standard optimizers can be adopted to solve the most important design problems. It is shown that the proposed methodology is a general and versatile tool for finite element analyses because it is able to consider, both, probabilistic and non-probabilistic sources of uncertainties, such as randomness, vagueness, ambiguity and imprecision.