Hybrid methodology for technical analysis

Hybrid methodology involving differential equations modeling and statistical regression is developed in order to test basic ideas in asset price dynamics. In particular, the method provides a mechanism for testing the relative importance of price trend compared with valuation. The significance of yearly highs in prices can also be understood through this procedure. A large data set of 52 closed-end funds comprising about 61,500 data points is used with the mixed effects model in SPlus. The model suggests that the role of the trend is as significant as the valuation. Upon determination of the coefficients, one has a model that can be used for short term forecasts of asset prices. The model incorporates the finiteness of assets and the importance of “liquidity”, or “excess cash”. The statistics utilize data on the number of shares and the national money supply. The methodology can easily be extended to other behavioral effects.