A statistical cognitive model to assess impact of spatially correlated wind production on market behaviors

Over the last decade, the share of wind power production has rapidly increased. Thus, the market clearing outcomes have been exposed by inherent power production uncertainty of wind farms. This uncertainty may inevitably affect the behaviors of strategic producers in exercising their market power. In this paper, a statistical cognitive model is proposed to simulate the strategic behaviors in presence of the wind power uncertainty. To this end, an approach based on Copula theory is used to characterize wind power uncertainty considering spatial correlation among diverse wind farms. Moreover, the proposed cognitive model allows strategic producers to learn how to exercise their market power.