Calibration of Cosing/Tubing Design Criteria by Use of Structural Reliability Techniques

This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in casing/tubing structural reliability analysis, and the knowledge gained from it to date. Results are presented to show that, as previously suspected, burst design based on casing full of gas is over-conservative for noncritical wells. However, the risk-calibrated design criteria are strongly dependent on the design philosophy for underground blowout loads. It is demonstrated that well control is the largest single factor in reducing risk; gaps in current knowledge are identified, and recommendations made for future work.