Probabilistic procedure for wood-frame roof sheathing panel debris impact to windows in hurricanes

The assessment of losses during extreme events such as hurricanes is important for performance-based design of residential buildings. In this paper, a methodology for estimating the probability of debris impact, specifically roof sheathing panels, to windows as a result of hurricanes is introduced and applied to a series of illustrative examples. The methodology is a combination of approaches on flat plate trajectories, numerical hurricane modeling, and statistical analysis of structural capacity. Within this methodology, one can estimate the probability of impact for one or more windows in a certain house group as a hurricane approaches and passes on a deterministic track as defined by the center of its eye. The impact probability is analyzed for each hour making up the full hurricane duration rather than a single analysis using the blended (total) hurricane statistics. An illustration of the method is presented through an assessment of windborne debris impacts to windows in a house group located near the US Gulf coast using a hurricane having the same track as hurricane Katrina in 2005. As a result, the probability of each window being hit by a roof sheathing panel (RSP) during each hour of the hurricane as well as during each of the example hurricanes is presented. The results quantify the probability from hour to hour during a hurricane and will provide a more accurate estimate of the probability and timing of pressurization of buildings for total loss estimation including rainwater intrusion volumes.