Modeling the politics of punishment: A conceptual and empirical analysis of ‘law in action’ in criminal sentencing

The empirical sentencing literature has focused intensively on racial equity concerns, but this research added to the literature by analyzing political-contextual sources of punishment. This study developed a functional model of court decision making and used ordinal logit to assess court punishment decisions in 387 counties across seven states. The findings supported established assumptions about individual level punishment determinants, but showed that political environment indicators also predicted sentence severity. Interactions were present as well. In law and order environments Black defendants received enhanced sentences, but in jurisdictions with the largest Black populations, Black defendants faced reduced punishments. With individual and state level effects held constant, the findings from this research reinforced claims that punishment is intensely political.