Managing successional species: Modelling the dependence of heath fritillary populations on the spatial distribution of woodland management

Species that persist on a shifting mosaic of successional habitat offer particular challenges to conservation, to monitoring methods, and to population dynamic modelling. The conservation of the heath fritillary butterfly (Melitaea athalia) in woodland in England, for example, depends on the creation of woodland clearings by coppicing (rotational cutting). We have developed a simulation model to assist in the conservation of such populations, called MANAGE. We have parameterised the model for the M. athalia population in the Blean Woods in Kent, and used it to answer several management questions. We find that: (1) simulations predict that the observed rates of coppicing will not be enough to meet existing conservation (Biodiversity Action Plan) targets, except when the most generous modelling assumptions are made; (2) the greatest uncertainty in the model outcome arises from uncertainty in the colonisation parameters; (3) in the worst case scenario (using the most pessimistic model assumptions), a population would require 2.3% of the Blean Woods to be coppiced each year, which is around double the currently-observed rate; (4) the four management units of the Blean where coppicing is practised are not independent metapopulations– they support each other; and (5) to sustain a population in a smaller landscape would require less coppicing overall, but more as a percentage of the landscape. This modelling approach may prove useful in the development of conservation management plans for other species that inhabit successional habitats.