Temporal variability in estuarine fish otolith elemental fingerprints: Implications for connectivity assessments

The chemical composition of fish otoliths can provide valuable information for determining the nursery value of estuaries to adult populations of coastal fishes. However, understanding temporal variation in elemental fingerprints at different scales is important as it can potentially confound spatial discrimination among estuaries. Otolith elemental ratios (Li:Ca, Mg:Ca, Mn:Ca, Cu:Ca, Sr:Ca, Ba:Ca and Pb:Ca) of Platichthys flesus and Dicentrarchus labrax, from several estuaries along the Portuguese coast in two years and three seasons (spring, summer and autumn) within a year, were determined via Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry. Elemental fingerprints varied significantly among years and seasons within a year but we achieved accurate classifications of juvenile fish to estuarine nursery of origin (77–96% overall cross-validated accuracy). Although elemental fingerprints were year-specific, variation among seasons did not hinder spatial discrimination. Estuarine fingerprints of pooled seasonal data were representative of the entire juvenile year class and attained high discrimination (77% and 80% overall cross-validated accuracy for flounder and sea bass, respectively). Incorporating seasonal variation resulted in up to an 11% increase in correct classification of individual estuaries, in comparison to seasons where accuracies were lowest. Overall, understanding the implications of temporal variations in otolith chemistry for spatial discrimination is key to establish baseline data for connectivity studies.