In pursuit of the proper null: Reply to

Chen argued that the proper null hypothesis for free-choice studies examining shifts in choice was 66.7%. Sagarin and Skowronki (2009) questioned the appropriateness of this value, noting that it was based on an unwarranted assumption that subjects always choose preferred options over less preferred options. In this paper, we respond to the points raised by Chen and Risen (2009), noting that: (a) violations of an additional unwarranted assumption (perfect transitivity) also move the proper null hypothesis towards 50%; (b) the validation of pretest measures would enable researchers to estimate an upper bound on the proper null; (c) the “blind” choice methodology proposed by Sagarin and Skowronski places the null unambiguously at 50%; and (d) Sagarin and Skowronski correctly call for null-hypothesis tests where needed. In the end, we again endorse the idea that this debate is best resolved empirically, but we believe the empirical avenues available are wider than those endorsed by Chen and Risen.