Title of article
Confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown
Author/Authors
Harvey ، نويسنده , , David I. and Leybourne، نويسنده , , Stephen J.، نويسنده ,
Pages
18
From page
262
To page
279
Abstract
We propose methods for constructing confidence sets for the timing of a break in level and/or trend that have asymptotically correct coverage for both I(0) and I(1) processes. These are based on inverting a sequence of tests for the break location, evaluated across all possible break dates. We separately derive locally best invariant tests for the I(0) and I(1) cases; under their respective assumptions, the resulting confidence sets provide correct asymptotic coverage regardless of the magnitude of the break. We suggest use of a pre-test procedure to select between the I(0)- and I(1)-based confidence sets, and Monte Carlo evidence demonstrates that our recommended procedure achieves good finite sample properties in terms of coverage and length across both I(0) and I(1) environments. An application using US macroeconomic data is provided which further evinces the value of these procedures.
Keywords
Stationary , Unit root , Confidence sets , Trend break , Level break , Locally best invariant test
Journal title
Astroparticle Physics
Record number
2042218
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