Modelling potential habitat for cougars in midwestern North America

Cougars (Puma concolor) are of considerable interest to wildlife biologists and the general public in midwestern North America, yet no researchers have modelled potential habitat in the region. We created a model of potential cougar habitat in 9 midwestern states using geospatial data, expert-opinion surveys, the analytical hierarchy process, and a GIS. About 8% of the study region contained highly favorable habitat (with favorability scores ≥75%) for cougars; the states of Arkansas (19%) and Missouri (16%) contained the highest proportions of potentially favorable habitat. We identified 6 large (≥2500 km2 in size), contiguous areas of highly favorable habitat for cougars. Model testing procedures indicated a valid model when compared to an independent set of cougar locations, a null dataset, and similar studies. Our model is useful as a planning tool to proactively address future human–cougar conflicts should cougars re-colonize the Midwest via subadult dispersal.