A critical comparison between mechanistically based probability and statistically based modeling for materials aging

Probability analyses are increasingly used for reliability and durability assessments in the life-cycle design and management of engineered systems. This paper provides a critical comparison between the mechanistically based probability and statistically based approaches. The crucial differences between the two approaches are highlighted and demonstrated through modeling of the creep crack growth response of a high-strength steel. The impact of these differences on structural reliability and durability analyses for life-cycle design and management is discussed.