Air quality impacts of increased use of ethanol under the United States’ Energy Independence and Security Act

Increased use of ethanol in the United States fuel supply will impact emissions and ambient concentrations of greenhouse gases, “criteria” pollutants for which the U. S. EPA sets ambient air quality standards, and a variety of air toxic compounds. This paper focuses on impacts of increased ethanol use on ozone and air toxics under a potential implementation scenario resulting from mandates in the U. S. Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007. The assessment of impacts was done for calendar year 2022, when 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels must be used. Impacts were assessed relative to a baseline which assumed ethanol volumes mandated by the first renewable fuels standard promulgated by U. S. EPA in early 2007. This assessment addresses both impacts of increased ethanol use on vehicle and other engine emissions, referred to as “downstream” emissions, and “upstream” impacts, i.e., those connected with fuel production and distribution. Air quality modeling was performed for the continental United States using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), version 4.7. Pollutants included in the assessment were ozone, acetaldehyde, ethanol, formaldehyde, acrolein, benzene, and 1,3-butadiene. Results suggest that increased ethanol use due to EISA in 2022 will adversely increase ozone concentrations over much of the U.S., by as much as 1 ppb. However, EISA is projected to improve ozone air quality in a few highly-populated areas that currently have poor air quality. Most of the ozone improvements are due to our assumption of increases in nitrogen oxides (NOx) in volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited areas. While there are some localized impacts, the EISA renewable fuel standards have relatively little impact on national average ambient concentrations of most air toxics, although ethanol concentrations increase substantially. Significant uncertainties are associated with all results, due to limitations in available data. These uncertainties are discussed in detail.