Emissions characterization and regulatory compliance at an industrial complex: An integrated MM5/CALPUFF approach

This paper couples the meteorological Mesoscale Model (MM5) with the non-steady state CALPUFF modelling system in a short range dispersion context to assess regulatory compliance with air quality standards in a coastal urban area with complex terrain. For this purpose, an inventory of CO, NOx, and PM10 emissions from an industrial complex, highway and quarrying activity was developed using emission factors reported by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the European Environment Agency (EEA). Multiple emission scenarios were then simulated to test the representativeness of the obtained emission factors using statistical analysis of predictions against year-round field measurements. At the validated emission rates, CALPUFF simulations showed an acceptable ability to predict the upper end of observed concentrations and reproduced field measurements at several locations. Statistical analysis revealed that sources are likely to be emitting at conservative estimates (worst-case efficiency of control equipment and fuel quality), with total CO, NOx and PM10 emissions reaching 913 g s−1 (19% by highway and 81% by industries), 1266 g s−1 (63% by highway and 37% by industries) and 2970 g s−1 (93% by industries and 7% by quarries), respectively.