Model representation of boundary-layer convergence triggering deep convection over complex terrain: A case study from COPS

An isolated thunderstorm from the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study in southwest Germany and east France in 2007 is analyzed. On July 15, deep convection developed east of the Black Forest crest, although convective available potential energy (CAPE) was only moderate and convective inhibition (CIN) was high. Data analysis revealed that convection was triggered by updrafts penetrating the capping inversion of the planetary boundary layer as a result of low-level convergence. Although the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-DE of the German Weather Service (2.8 km grid resolution) simulated a convergence line and the evolution of a line of low clouds in good agreement with radar and satellite observations, no precipitating deep convection developed from this line of clouds. For an improved representation of orographic effects, simulations with a finer grid resolution of 1 km were performed. Despite almost optimal conditions, i.e. moderate amount of CAPE and almost vanishing CIN, the updrafts required to overcome CIN were not reached in both model configurations. Although both simulations did not initiate deep convection, the results suggest that in an air mass convection situation without mid-tropospheric forcing, the simulated location and timing of convergence lines with coexistent large values of CAPE and low values of CIN can be used as diagnostic parameters for deep convection nowcasting.