Comparison of transport pathways and potential sources of PM10 in two cities around a large Chinese lake using the modified trajectory analysis

Trajectory cluster analysis, including the two-stage cluster method based on Euclidean metrics and the one-stage clustering method based on Mahalanobis metrics and self-organizing maps (SOM), was applied and compared to identify the transport pathways of PM10 for the cities of Chaohu and Hefei, both located near Lake Chaohu in China. The two-stage cluster method was modified to further investigate the long trajectories in the second stage in order to eliminate the observed disaggregation among them. Twelve trajectory clusters were identified for both cities. The one-stage clustering method based on Mahalanobis metrics gives the best performance regarding the variances within clusters. The results showed that local PM10 emission was one of the most important sources in both cities and that the local emission in Hefei was higher than in Chaohu. In addition, Chaohu suffered greater effects from the eastern region (Yangtze River Delta, YRD) than Hefei. On the other hand, the long-range transportation from the northwestern pathway had a higher influence on the PM10 level in Hefei. Receptor models, including potential source contribution function (PSCF) and residence time weighted concentrations (RTWC), were utilized to identify the potential source locations of PM10 for both cities. However, the combined PSCF and RTWC results for the two cities provided PM10 source locations that were more consistent with the results of transport pathways and the total anthropogenic PM10 emission inventory. This indicates that the combined methodʹs ability to identify the source regions is superior to that of the individual PSCF or RTWC methods. Henan and Shanxi Provinces and the YRD were important PM10 source regions for the two cities, but the Henan and Shanxi area was more important for Hefei than for Chaohu, while the YRD region was less important. In addition, the PSCF, RTWC and the combined results all had higher correlation coefficients with PM10 emission from traffic than from industry, electricity generation or residential sources, suggesting the relatively higher contribution of traffic emissions to the PM10 pollution in Lake Chaohu.