Predicting and managing channel change in Southeast Australia

The recognition of alternating flood- (FDRs) and drought-dominated regimes (DDRs) in coastal rivers of New South Wales has helped to explain some of the changes in channels and floodplains observed in more recent times. Complex responses, as adjustments to regime shifts and to human-induced catchment and channel changes, can to some extent be forecasted using conceptual models. These in turn can be used to forecast channel and floodplain changes in both high and low energy environments for two future scenarios; one involving a change from the present FDR to a new DDR, and the other, much more complex, a superimposition of greenhouse conditions on firstly a DDR and then on a FDR. The latter situation will see a very unstable landscape and will require management strategies far more sophisticated than those used at present.