Application of Grey-autoregressive Dynamic Model to Calculation of Atomic Time Scale

Because of the effects of various kinds of noises and other factors, the state of running of an atomic clock is quite complicated. In order to precisely predict the exact variation in frequency or clock rate of the atomic clock, it is necessary to study and make a reliable prediction model and via the model the clock rate of the atomic clock is predicted so as to be adopted in the monitoring of the coordinated local time and the calculation of the local atomic time. The problem how to utilize the grey model and autoregressive model to predict the clock rate of the atomic clock is discussed. The synthesized model of the two models is proposed and researched. It is tested and verified in combination with the actual data of the atomic clocks at National Time Service Center, and the computational methods of predicting the accuracies of the models corresponding to different atomic clocks are given.