Quantitative scenario-based simulation of global business models for manufacturers

Manufacturers expanding their business globally need to understand and analyze long-term trends of technology innovation relevant to their products as well as future socio-economic development of the target markets. Qualitative scenario modeling methods can evaluate opportunities and risks of their products in a specific market. To obtain quantitative evaluation results, however, just qualitative scenario models do not suffice. This paper proposes a new method for scenario modeling and simulation that integrates numerical data from various available scenarios and analyzes the compatibility between the product and the market. A simulation case study of the dissemination of electric vehicles is illustrated.