Fitting avalanche-dynamics models with documented events from the Col du Lautaret site (France) using the conceptual approach

This paper tests three conceptual avalanche-dynamics models by comparing their predictions to 14 documented avalanches observed at the Lautaret Pass (France). Three models were used: the Voellmy-like model, an extension of this model (referred to as the generalized Voellmy-like model), and a new model deduced, referred to as the modified Coulomb-like model. Compared to deterministic physically based models, these models are not intended to describe the dynamical behavior of avalanches, but to mimic their behavior by using nonlinear mathematical operators. Agreement between model predictions and field data was uneven: the three models succeeded in reproducing the run-out distance, but only two of them (generalized Voellmy and Coulomb-like models) provided correct estimates of avalanche velocity.