A novel method for estimating settlement of embankments in cold regions

Settlement of embankments in cold regions mainly results from thaw consolidation of permafrost and creep of warm frozen layer. To estimate the settlement of embankments, a novel method was proposed in this paper. Firstly, the theoretical models for the aforementioned sources of settlement were analyzed. An improved 3D thaw consolidation theory was used for the thaw consolidation of permafrost while a creep model was proposed to describe the creep of frozen soils with a Drucker–Prager yield criterion. Secondly, the program code was compiled in the FISH language in FLAC 3D for the live calculation of thaw consolidation and creep in corresponding domains which change under seasonal freeze–thaw. Finally, a typical section along the Qinghai–Tibetan highway was taken as the study object. Results show that the simulated settlement agrees well with the monitored data in situ.