Interactive approach for GIS-based earthquake scenario development and resource estimation (Karmania hazard model)

The Karmania Hazard Model (KHM) is a GIS-based application for earthquake scenario development and disaster management. The lack of integrated and automated tools for estimating resources needed in the aftermath of an earthquake during the disaster response phase motivated the design and implementation of a comprehensive, interactive, and user-friendly model. This model draws on datasets integrated and manipulated in a relational database management system to simulate an earthquake with specific characteristics such as magnitude, depth, distance, time and date. Earthquake risk, seismic microzonation and intensity maps, building and population vulnerability maps, reports on damages and estimation of required resources are produced by applying empirically validated equations and spatial data analysis. The model is validated with data collected after 2003 earthquake in Bam City. It enables disaster managers and decision makers to prepare for a probable earthquake. It gives urban planners an opportunity to design and revise their strategies for urban redevelopment and future urban extensions. Despite the uncertainties and complexities that are inherent to simulation modeling, KHM can serve as a practical tool to assist decision-makers in effective post-disaster management.