Hydrodynamic accumulation of Karenia off the west coast of Florida

Blooms of the toxic dinoflagellates, Karenia spp. occur nearly annually in the eastern Gulf of Mexico with cell abundances typically >105 cells L−1. Thermal and ocean color satellite imagery shows sea surface temperature patterns indicative of upwelling events and the concentration of chlorophyll at fronts along the west Florida continental shelf. Daily cell counts of Karenia show greater increases in cell concentrations at fronts than can be explained by Kareniaʹs maximum specific growth rate. This is observed in satellite images as up to a 10-fold greater increase in chlorophyll biomass over 1–2 d periods than can be explained by in situ growth. In this study, we propose a model that explains why surface blooms of Karenia may develop even when nutrients on the west Florida shelf are low. In the summer, northward winds produce a net flow east and southeast bringing water and nutrients from the Mississippi River plume onto the west Florida shelf at depths of 20–50 m. This water mass supplies utilizable inorganic and organic forms of nitrogen that promote the growth of Karenia to pre-bloom concentrations in sub-surface waters in the mid-shelf region. In the fall, a change to upwelling favorable winds produces onshore transport. This transport, coupled with the swimming behavior of Karenia, leads to physical accumulation at frontal regions near the coast, resulting in fall blooms. Strong thermal fronts during the winter provide a mechanism for re-intensification of the blooms, if Karenia cells are located north of the fronts. This conceptual model leads to testable hypotheses on bloom development throughout the Gulf of Mexico.