A case study of the impact of cyclonic trajectories on sea-level extremes in the Gulf of Finland

Modelling of water levels in the Baltic Sea, aimed at evaluating the influence of the trajectories and propagation speeds of a deep idealized cyclone on sea-level extremes in the Gulf of Finland, is done using the hydrodynamic model BSM6. An analytical expression for determination of the atmospheric pressure in this cyclone takes into account the existence of the cold front and the time evolution of the cyclone intensity. The empirical parameters in this relation are based on those of the deep cyclone ‘Erwin’ which passed over the Baltic Sea region in 2005.