Scenarios Simulation on Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Kunming City

With high-speed development of social economy, rapid urbanization, the impact of drought, water resources supply and demand imbalance in Kunming City, improving carrying capacity of water resources will become the hot topic of sustainable development research in Kunming City. Based on the carrying capacity theory of water resources (CCWR) and system dynamics (SD) principle, a dynamic model which related with water resources, society, economy and eco-environment was established. Using this model, four scenarios were set up. They were remaining current water utilization scenario, improving the utilization of water resource scenario, water conservation strategy scenario, and comprehensive strategy scenario. The results of simulations showed that comprehensive strategy was the optimal strategy that can improve the carrying capacity of water resource in Kunming City from 2010 to 2020. The comprehensive strategy included optimization and adjustment of industry structure, improving the utilization of water resources, water conservation and finally pollutant reduction and sewage recycling.