The tourism–economy causality in the United States: A sub-industry level examination

This study analyzes the relationships between the performance of four tourism related industries (airlines, casinos, hotels, and restaurants) and GDP in the U.S., using cointegration and Granger causality tests. The results show no cointegration between economic growth and industry performance in the U.S. This suggests that mechanisms to increase the revenue of tourism related industries can potentially be successful in the long-run, even in the face of sustained economic stagnation. The results also indicate a temporal causal hierarchy among industry performance, which could be a good tool for timing and prioritizing the allocation of resources among industries to ensure better overall tourism and economic outcomes. Investors and managers could also use this temporal hierarchy to identify the best timing for investments and business strategies by observing performance trends of industries higher on the temporal hierarchy.