Yarkovsky detection opportunities. I. Solitary asteroids

We show that, over the next two decades, the current radar and optical astrometric technology is adequate to allow detection of the Yarkovsky effect acting on at least two dozen NEAs from a variety of orbital regimes and with effective diameters ranging from about ten meters up to several kilometers. The Yarkovsky effect will likely be detected for objects of rarer spectral types X, C, and E, as well as the more common S and Q. The next predicted detection of the Yarkovsky effect is for 4179 Toutatis in October 2004, which would be also the first multi-kilometer case. The Asteroid 25143 Itokawa, with a likely detection at the end of 2005, could offer an important test due to the independent “ground-truth” measurements of the asteroid mass and surface thermal inertia expected from the Hayabusa spacecraft. Earth co-orbital asteroids (e.g., 2000 PH5 or 2003 YN107) are the best placed for rapid determination of the Yarkovsky effect, and the timespan between discovery of the object and detection of the Yarkovsky effect may be as short as 3 years. By 2012, the motion of potential Earth impactor (29075) 1950 DA will likely reveal the magnitude of the Yarkovsky effect, which in turn will identify which of two possible pole orientations is correct. Vis-a-vis the 2880 impact, this new information will allow a substantial improvement in the quality of long term predictions.