EPES – Earthquake pedestrians׳ evacuation simulator: A tool for predicting earthquake pedestrians׳ evacuation in urban outdoor scenarios

Earthquake risk assessment at urban scale does not actually consider human behaviours during both the event and the first evacuation phases. Nevertheless, understanding and simulating these aspects become essential in determining how human behaviours influence inhabitants׳ safety levels, defining combined “risk maps” and evaluating community resilience features. This work proposes an innovative approach by offering a simulator for pedestrians׳ earthquake evacuation in urban scenarios. Firstly, our previous behavioural investigations of real earthquake evacuation from all over the World allow organizing rules in pedestrians׳ evacuation and man–environment interactions in the post-event scenario: an agent-based (ABM) approach is provided for their representation by using the i⁎ language. Secondly, operative criteria for pedestrian motion are provided: in particular, motion law for pedestrians is defined by modifying the Social Force model approach with the behavioural results of our case study. Rules for environmental modifications due to the earthquake are proposed. Finally, the software EPES (Earthquake Pedestrians׳ Evacuation Simulator) is implemented on these bases and validated using a case study (an Italian historical centre). Results firstly summarize the behavioural analysis discussion and the ABM definition. First validations about ruins formations, behavioural aspects, motion speed in evacuations and path choice are offered. EPES is proposed as a tool for evaluating probable pedestrians׳ choices in different scenarios, and checking solutions for reducing interferences between the human evacuation process and the built environment. Operative strategies for interferences reduction could be founded on model previsions, such as interventions on particular buildings, evacuation strategies definition and urban planning.