Long Run Analysis of Natural Gas and Electricity Export via System Dynamics

Analyzing different scenarios for exporting natural gas and electricity is the main subject in this paper. The place of Iran as the owner of second largest reserves of natural gas in the world and exporting it to different countries increase the notability of this study. On the other hand, in the restructured power system, the role of natural gas is growing in the electricity generation. This paper analyzes exporting natural gas and electricity via three scenarios, including 1) direct transfer of natural gas at real time and forward prices, 2) exporting the electricity, considering fuel payment and without fuel cost and 3) conversion of natural gas into electricity and transferring via the power market. Markove Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is applied for modelling the natural gas price during the studied time horizon. In this regard, the scenarios are analyzed via system dynamics. Published data by energy information administration (EIA) about natural gas price, the costs of generation by different technologies and plans for exporting the natural gas and electricity are used in this study. The results show that exporting the natural gas or the electricity in suitable forward price are the most profitable scenarios. Transferring the natural gas at real time price is profitable, while exporting the electricity at the real time price of power market can not meet the economic goals, even by expanding the renewable resources.