The impact of climate change on water level of Urmia Lake

The Urmia Lake is one of the largest and most important natural ecosystems in Iran. Rising temperature, high variations in precipitation, and the frequent droughts have been caused high fluctuations in the lake’s water level. In this research, the monthly change of the Urmia Lake water level due to climate change was simulated by the Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) from 2000-2100 by the HadCM3 model under Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A2 and B2). Monthly inputs to the model are the precipitation over the lake, the temperature mean values, and the total inflow discharge. The effect of climate change on future water level based on the projection of the results from HadCM3 model under A2 scenario showed increase in average annual temperature and decrease in average annual lake’s level by 2.80 °C and 4.60 m, respectively. The B2 scenario predicted enhancement in the average annual temperature and reduce in the average annual lake’s level by 2.35 °C and 3.93 m, correspondingly. Comparing the A2 and B2 scenarios concluded that the A2 scenario predicted a more critical state for the Urmia Lake.