Impact of Temperature and Precipitation on Net Revenue of Maize Growers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

This study estimated and forecasted the effect of temperature and precipitation on net revenueof maize growers across Northern, Eastern, Central and Southern zones of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.200 maize growers were randomly selected through multistage sampling technique. Primary data on net revenuefrom maize crop was collected through an interview schedule and secondary data on temperature andprecipitation was collected from Regional Metrological Department, Peshawar. Cross sectional RicardianModel was used to estimate the effect of temperature and precipitation on net revenue. Results of the studyrevealed that temperature has positive effect and temperature square has negative effect on net revenue at10% and 5% level of significance, respectively. This means that net revenue from maize crop increases initially,as temperature increases, after reaching critical level (32.14 °C) further increase in temperature decreasesnet revenue. Rainfall and rainfall square has insignificant effect on net revenue of maize growers. Zone wiseanalysis of forecasting effects of temperature shows that increase in temperature by 1 °C in 2040-2050 and by2 °C in 2060-2080 will significantly increase net revenue of maize growers in Northern and Eastern zones,but insignificantly in Central zone. An increase in temperature by 1 °C in 2040-2050 and by 2 °C in 2060-2080 will decrease net revenue in Southern zone. Government needs to encourage research institutes fordeveloping temperature tolerance varieties of maize and other crops grown in Central and Southern zones ofthe province. Government also needs to encourage farming community of Central and Southern zones forafforestation in order to control increase in temperature.