Inference and Probability in Methodology of hadīth

A central feature in the study of hadīthmethodology is in ensuring the authenticity of a narration attributed to the Prophet (s.a.w). While the details of criterion may differ somewhat between scholars, the common principles would see scrutiny of the content of a hadīth as well as the chain of transmission. It is thus with these that scholars are able to determine the condition of the reports attributed to the Prophet (s.a.w). In this work, we propose to model the transmission of hadīth in the context of binary channels and use the Bayes theorem from basic Probability Theory to discuss authenticity of a narration in a quantitative language. We present the model and further apply it to analyze certain types of hadīth, including the muttawatir and ahad.